PII Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Polaris's strategic product launches and market expansion can leverage current low prices to attract value investors, potentially reversing the trend.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and backwardation indicate persistent uncertainty. Negative sentiment from recent issues and economic pressures could prolong the downturn.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 30%: Successful market expansion and product acceptance drives recovery.
  • 40%: Continued economic pressures and volatility maintain downward trend.
  • 20%: Stability around current levels as uncertainty resolves.
  • 10%: Unexpected regulatory or economic development drastically shifts outlook.



April 12, 2025


Polaris Forecast

PII        Polaris











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PII



AEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEO  American Eagle Outfitters (0.93)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (0.92)


XRAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRAY  DENTSPLY Sirona (0.91)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (0.89)


CAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAL  Caleres (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PII



ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.0)


HRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRI  Herc (-0.01)


UL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UL  Unilever (-0.01)


EA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EA  Electronic Arts (-0.01)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PII



ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (-0.8)


TSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSAT  Telesat Corp (-0.81)


LNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNG  Cheniere Energy (-0.81)


VNET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNET  VNET (-0.83)


HIMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMS  Hims & Hers Health (-0.88)









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