PLOW Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: PLOW's historical returns indicate potential upside over longer holding periods, supported by operational improvements and seasonal demand increases.




Bearish Case: PLOW's historical returns highlight consistent underperformance, compounded by unpredictable weather and high volatility, suggesting downside pressure.




Potential Outcomes: Improving snowfall boosts demand: 30%. Continued low snowfall impacts sales: 45%. New contracts enhance profitability: 25%.




Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish put debit spread on PLOW, buying the 25 Puts and selling the 22.5 Puts for May 2025. This leverages high implied volatility with a bearish outlook given current trends. Anticipate mean reversion and weather impacts to drive price lower.



February 04, 2025


Douglas Dynamics Forecast

PLOW        Douglas Dynamics











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PLOW



MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.75)


CDNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDNA  Caredx (0.73)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (0.7)


ATI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATI  Allegheny (0.7)


KBH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KBH  KB Home (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PLOW



ELAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ELAN  Elanco Animal Health (0.0)


NBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NBR  Nabors Industries (0.0)


UAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAL  United Airlines (-0.0)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (0.0)


ROM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROM  ProShares Ultra Technology (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PLOW



ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.63)


WST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WST  West Pharmaceutical Services (-0.64)


INFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INFA  Informatica (-0.64)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.64)


ABNB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABNB  Airbnb (-0.67)









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