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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The bullish case for POWW centers on increasing geopolitical tensions, resulting in heightened ammunition demand globally. Innovations in AMMO's green ammonia solutions may also attract investment, further enhancing profitability.

Bearish Case: Conversely, the bearish case is driven by regulatory uncertainties surrounding ammunition manufacturing and potential shifts towards alternative technologies. Any significant safety incidents could also impact investor sentiment negatively.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased demand for ammunition due to geopolitical conflicts (60%);

2. Stricter regulations impact production (25%);

3. Rapid competition from alternative tech (15%);

4. Stable military spending supports demand (20%).

Trading Oracle: Considering current volatility levels, a short-term bullish debit spread targeting the January 2025 2.50C and 5.00C options could provide high reward while managing downside risk. With market conditions favoring upward price movement, this strategy aims to capitalize on anticipated demand spikes around geopolitical events.

October 13, 2024