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POWW Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Increased geopolitical tensions are likely to sustain high demand for ammunition, with POWW potentially benefiting from military supplies and growing market presence.

Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and tech advances in green ammunition may limit traditional demand, impacting POWW's growth and stock performance negatively.

Potential Outcomes: Geopolitical tensions raise ammo demand (60%)
Regulatory constraints impact sales (20%)
Stable demand due to lack of alternatives (20%)

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread with July options (2.00C and 3.00C) to pay off implied volatility spikes. Leveraging geopolitical tension and expected near-term demand spikes offer alpha and high reward:risk. This strategy minimizes downside while exploiting market conditions.

January 15, 2025

AMMO Forecast

POWW AMMO

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with POWW

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (0.91)

LEA Lear (0.9)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (0.89)

OXY Occidental Petroleum (0.88)

XRX Xerox (0.88)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to POWW

DELL Dell (0.0)

MFA MFA Financial (-0.01)

OLED Universal Display (-0.02)

DNN Denison Mines (0.03)

AZN Astrazeneca (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against POWW

TVTX Travere Therapeutics (-0.85)

COHR Coherent (-0.85)

CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.87)

TGTX TG Therapeutics (-0.87)

GWRE Guidewire Software (-0.87)

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