PSX Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: PSX's strategic renewable focus and stable dividends suggest long-term growth. Increased implied volatility shows potential for substantial upside driven by strategic executions.




Bearish Case: Rising regulatory pressures and declining refining margins could undermine PSX profits. Elevated long-term volatility suggests potential for downside or stagnation due to operational hurdles.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Strategic successes lead to growth: 40% chance
  • Market volatility impacts margins: 35% chance
  • Regulatory and operational setbacks: 25% chance




Trading Oracle:

Given the increased implied volatility and mean-reverting dynamics, employing Bearish Long Volatility is ideal. This strategy benefits from potential downside risk while leveraging the expected volatility uptick identified in the surface graphs.



March 29, 2025


Phillips 66 Forecast

PSX        Phillips 66











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DOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOW  Dow (0.91)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

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VZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VZ  Verizon Communications (0.01)


BXMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BXMT  Blackstone Mortgage (0.01)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.02)


VOYA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOYA  Voya Financial (0.04)


AMH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMH  American Homes 4 Rent (-0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PSX



ONON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONON  On (-0.86)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.86)


NOK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOK  Nokia (-0.86)


SAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAP  Sap SE (-0.87)


EAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EAT  Brinker International (-0.87)









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