Bullish Case: QCOM has strong growth prospects through emerging technologies, particularly in automotive and AI sectors, supported by favorable analyst outlooks and positive market sentiment.

Bearish Case: Weakness in smartphone sales and intensified competition may hinder QCOM's profitability, compounded by potential regulatory challenges and insider selling pressures impacting market confidence.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance FTC approves the Autotalks acquisition, boosting revenues.

2. 40% chance FTC blocks the deal, leading to price decline.

3. 70% for successful launch of Snapdragon G Series, driving growth.

4. 30% for negative reception to new products affecting margins.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish stance by implementing a long put spread: buy 1 $165 put and sell 1 $160 put expiring soon. This captures volatility with a favorable risk/reward ratio, and market sentiment suggests a 62% chance of profit. Focus on capturing volatility spikes as the market reacts to product launches.

November 12, 2024