RAPT Forecast


Bullish Case: Despite severe decreases, mean-reversion and upcoming trial data could trigger a recovery. Helium forecasts a +1.62% price increase [Helium, Helium].


Bearish Case: Continued safety concerns and winding down of Phase 2 studies suggest further downside [Endpoints, Helium, Helium]. High uncertainty of over 270% ahead of September expiration signals potential volatility-induced moves lower.


Potential Outcomes: 45% slow recovery if safety resolved; 35% further depreciation from adverse events; 20% volatile spikes driven by trial closures. New data, insider trading, and overall sector moves drive probabilities.


Trading Oracle: Trade credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility). Bearish bias. Sell OCT'24 12-strike calls, buy 16-strike calls. High premium from elevated volatility at 272% . Use stop-loss if price spikes higher due to trial updates.


June 27, 2024


RAPT Therapeutics Forecast

RAPT      RAPT Therapeutics











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ACAD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACAD  Acadia Pharmaceuticals (0.88)


U Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   U  Unity Software (0.87)


QS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QS  QuantumScape (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

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NUE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NUE  Nucor (0.0)


NICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NICE  NICE (0.0)


VRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNT  Verint Systems (0.0)


PYPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PYPL  PayPal (-0.0)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RAPT



SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (-0.79)


BJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BJ  BJ's Wholesale Club (-0.8)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.8)


FTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTI  TechnipFMC (-0.82)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.82)





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