RARE Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: RARE's implied volatility decrease and higher call trading volumes suggest optimism around clinical outcomes, potentially leveraging lower market expectations.




Bearish Case: Persistent price declines, insider selling, and high implied volatility may indicate skepticism, posing downside risks given past clinical setbacks.




Potential Outcomes: 30% positive clinical trial results, 40% regulatory issues, 30% market neutrality. Significant volatility around trial news expected.



March 19, 2025


Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Forecast

RARE        Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical











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