RARE Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: RARE's potential breakthrough treatments in rare diseases, coupled with increased call option trading volumes, hint at speculative upward movement.




Bearish Case: Substantial implied volatility suggests market skepticism and risk related to trial outcomes and insider activity, likely capping upside potential.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% Positive clinical trial result
  • 40% Underwhelming product sales
  • 30% Market indifference




Trading Oracle: Consider a Helium Long Volatility strategy focused on $40-$45 call debit spreads expiring in May 2025. High implied volatility and potential trial success set a favorable risk-reward scenario, leveraging undervalued options.



February 13, 2025


Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Forecast

RARE        Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical











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FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.83)


MAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAS  Masco (0.76)


ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.75)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RARE



JBLU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JBLU  Jetblue Airways (-0.0)


BEKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEKE  KE (0.0)


NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (-0.0)


EXK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXK  Endeavour Silver (0.0)


PRU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRU  Prudential Financial (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RARE



FREY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FREY  FREYR Battery (-0.67)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.68)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.71)


SNAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNAP  Snapchat (-0.72)


NEXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEXT  NextDecade (-0.74)









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