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RARE Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Positive clinical trials or product sales could surge RARE's price, fueled by rising institutional interest, low competition, and favorable regulatory news.



Bearish Case: Continued insider selling and negative sentiment from poor prior performance might anchor RARE's price, coupled with low implied volatility indicating market skepticism.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Positive clinical outcomes: 35%
  • Market stagnation: 30%
  • Pipeline setbacks: 25%
  • Elevated volatility but no significant price move: 10%



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit call spread with a $50-$55 strike, targeting January 2025 expiry. This strategy leverages the current high implied volatility spike, allowing capture of upside with manageable risk. Aiming for positive edge due to upcoming potential catalysts, this approach maximizes reward-to-risk ratio.


December 18, 2024


Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Forecast

RARE        Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical

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