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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Rogers Communications shows potential for growth with increasing implied volatility, suggesting market confidence in future price spikes. The historical return surface data indicates reasonable chances for positive returns over extended holding periods, particularly around the 1-2 year mark due to upcoming tech deployments.

Bearish Case: Current market uncertainty and elevated put option volume suggest heightened bearish sentiment towards ROG. Historical price returns demonstrate volatility, particularly in short-term holding periods, indicating risk of further declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1. (60%) Successful 5G expansion boosts market position.

2. (30%) Regulatory challenges hinder growth.

3. (10%) Major tech partnership leads to significant revenue increase.

Trading Oracle: Implement bullish debit spreads focused on $130-$140 strikes due to elevated implied volatility and positive market outlook. Time horizon: 3-6 months, targeting higher returns while managing risks. This strategy leverages bullish sentiment while preparing for volatility.

September 28, 2024