RPM Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: RPM's historical growth and acquisition strategy provide momentum. Implied volatility indicates potential for upside surprises.




Bearish Case: Flat recent performance and insider selling suggest limited short-term gains. Volatility surfaces show potential for downward adjustments.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 45% chance of flat performance - consistent historical trend
  • 30% possibility of moderate decline - influenced by selling trends
  • 25% chance of growth - supported by strategic expansions




Trading Oracle:
A Bearish Short Volatility strategy might be optimal. Selling ATM call options and buying more OTM calls aligns with the consistent flat trajectory and stable implied volatility. Expected edge from Helium models supports this controlled risk approach.



April 30, 2025


RPM International Forecast

RPM        RPM International











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RPM



FITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FITB  Fifth Third Bancorp (0.94)


PNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNC  PNC Financial Services (0.91)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.9)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.9)


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RPM



BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.0)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.0)


APG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APG  APi (0.01)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.01)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RPM



GROY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GROY  Gold Royalty (-0.5)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.58)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (-0.63)


EWW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWW  iShares MSCI Mexico (-0.65)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.73)









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