RUN Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Increased storage capacity sales and favorable policy tailwinds position Sunrun for growth, supported by recent bullish options volume and volatility trends.




Bearish Case: High leverage and volatile market sentiment present insolvency risks. Despite bullish interest, historical price weakness and backwardation highlight vulnerability.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance: Solar demand drives recovery.
  • 50% chance: Financial strain increases, leading to further decline.
  • 20% chance: Unexpected catalysts spur growth.



April 24, 2025


Sunrun Forecast

RUN        Sunrun











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RUN



IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (0.9)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.9)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.89)


EPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPI  WisdomTree India Earnings (0.88)


FSLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLR  First Solar (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RUN



CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (-0.0)


SPYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYD  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend (-0.0)


APPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPN  Appian (-0.01)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (0.01)


BA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BA  Boeing (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RUN



V Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   V  Visa (-0.77)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.78)


MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (-0.79)


MP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MP  MP Materials (-0.83)


CNP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNP  Centerpoint Energy (-0.91)









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