RUN Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Increased storage capacity sales and favorable policy tailwinds position Sunrun for growth, supported by recent bullish options volume and volatility trends.




Bearish Case: High leverage and volatile market sentiment present insolvency risks. Despite bullish interest, historical price weakness and backwardation highlight vulnerability.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance: Solar demand drives recovery.
  • 50% chance: Financial strain increases, leading to further decline.
  • 20% chance: Unexpected catalysts spur growth.



April 24, 2025


Sunrun Forecast

RUN        Sunrun











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RUN



IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (0.9)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.84)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (0.84)


TXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXT  Textron (0.83)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RUN



CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (-0.0)


APPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPN  Appian (-0.01)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (0.01)


RY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RY  Royal Bank Of Canada (-0.02)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RUN



MASI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MASI  Masimo (-0.77)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.78)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.79)


MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (-0.79)


KC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KC  Kingsoft Cloud (-0.87)









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