Bullish Case: RWT's current pricing and possible recovery indications suggest a bullish sentiment. Upcoming catalysts, such as increased investor interest in the EV market and robust dividend yield, could drive a positive price movement.

Bearish Case: Persistent high volatility and historical downtrends indicate challenges for RWT. Local sentiment issues and possible negative market reactions could apply downward pressure on the stock's price.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance RWT learns from growth strategies, attracting new investments and positive ratings.

2. 40% likelihood the current negative price momentum continues due to historical trends.

3. 30% chance that government support enhances operational conditions, positively affecting stock performance.

Trading Oracle: Initiate a credit spread strategy by selling RWT $7.00 put options and buying $6.00 puts for protection. This captures premium from high implied volatility while positioning for possible stability or slight bullishness in the upcoming months. Maintain a focus on RWT's fundamental shifts, which support this outlook.

November 17, 2024