SACH Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: SACH's potential for operational growth, strategic partnerships, and undervaluation could catalyze a rebound. Historical trends over long holding periods show upside potential, supporting a recovery narrative.




Bearish Case: SACH faces significant liquidity issues, high debt, and market skepticism. Historical return data shows a strong likelihood of negative outcomes over short holding periods, intensified by economic uncertainties.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Recovery due to positive earnings or partnerships (30%).
  • Continued decline from liquidity issues (50%).
  • Price stability in absence of major news (20%).




Trading Oracle: Deploy credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) on SACH, focusing on short-term expirations to exploit likely declines and mean-reverting tendencies. Target February to March 2025 options for optimal risk-reward, as market conditions favor non-bullish scenarios.



December 29, 2024


Sachem Forecast

SACH        Sachem











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LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (0.94)


KSS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KSS  Kohl's (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SACH



ARKK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKK  ARK Innovation (-0.0)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (-0.02)


GIII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIII  G-III Apparel (0.02)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (-0.03)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SACH



VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.91)


FLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLR  Fluor (-0.91)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (-0.92)


CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (-0.92)


GDDY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDDY  Godaddy (-0.95)









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