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SAFE Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: SAFE offers long-term growth with its ground lease model amid real estate stability. Declining SPY IV indicates general market confidence, potentially uplifting SAFE.

Bearish Case: High put volume and elevated implied volatility suggest strong market skepticism. Regulatory challenges or economic impacts could further suppress price action.

Potential Outcomes: 1. Stabilize at $15 (40% chance) from current low volatility.

2. Decline to $12 (30%) due to persisting market skepticism.

3. Rise to $18 (30%) if institutional confidence rebounds significantly.

April 17, 2025

Safehold Forecast

SAFE Safehold

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SAFE

LEN Lennar (0.93)

CUBE CubeSmart (0.93)

EIX Edison International (0.88)

CL Colgate-Palmolive (0.85)

PHM PulteGroup (0.85)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAFE

DGRO iShares Core Dividend Growth (-0.0)

KKR KKR (0.0)

LIT Global X Lithium & Battery Tech (-0.01)

WWW Wolverine World Wide (0.01)

JNUG Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAFE

MAIN Main Street (-0.68)

FRSH Freshworks (-0.73)

BB BlackBerry (-0.73)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.78)

CNP Centerpoint Energy (-0.83)

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