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SAFE Forecast

Price Forecast:

80% Confidence

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: Potential for stabilization as mean reversion continues; social sentiment improvement could further support a base near recent lows.

Bearish Case: Persistent high implied volatility and significant put volume suggest market skepticism, potential for further declines if negative sentiment persists.

Potential Outcomes: 40% chance of stabilization near current levels, 30% chance of decline exceeding 10% due to volatility, 30% chance of gradual rise if sentiment shifts positive.

Trading Oracle: Bearish bias with high volatility suggests a credit spread between $18-$22.5 as IV favors premium capture. Against backdrop of high put volume, this offers superior risk/reward over 3 months.

December 26, 2024

Safehold Forecast

SAFE Safehold

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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See Longer Forecasts

Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SAFE

EPR EPR Properties (0.85)

DHI D.R. Horton (0.84)

RDFN Redfin (0.83)

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.82)

NNN National Retail Properties (0.82)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAFE

V Visa (0.0)

OWL Blue Owl (-0.0)

SU Suncor Energy (0.01)

VSAT Viasat (-0.01)

BMRN Registered Shares (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAFE

ANET Arista Networks (-0.73)

CTAS Cintas (-0.74)

USD ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (-0.75)

UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.75)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.83)

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Trading Strategies

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.