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SAGE Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: SAGE may rebound from negative sentiment as upcoming trial results for dalzanemdor could exceed expectations, attracting renewed investor interest. Market recovery is plausible given the high unmet need in neurological treatments.



Bearish Case: SAGE faces further declines amid recent leadership changes and ongoing uncertainties from failed trials. With volatility showing signs of market skepticism, immediate term pressure on stock price is likely as investor confidence wanes.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of successful trial results boosting investor sentiment and stock price recovery.

2. 35% chance of moderate performance keeping stock steady.

3. 25% chance of continued declines if trials underperform, driven by skepticism and negative sentiment.



Trading Oracle: Due to current high implied volatility (IV), consider a bearish credit spread strategy by selling short-term puts at the $7.50 strike, generating income while capitalizing on potential IV contraction. This setup offers a high probability of profit, aligning well with the current market outlook.


October 18, 2024


Sage Therapeutics Forecast

SAGE        Sage Therapeutics

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SAGE


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (0.96)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.95)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (0.94)


JACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JACK  Jack In The Box (0.94)


PGNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGNY  Progyny (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAGE


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (-0.0)


MUB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUB  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares National Muni Bond (-0.0)


ACMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACMR  ACM Research (-0.0)


AGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGO  Assured Guaranty (0.0)


SMCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMCI  Super Micro Computer (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAGE


AGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGI  Alamos Gold (-0.93)


CNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNX  CNX Resources (-0.94)


KNTK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KNTK  Kinetik (-0.94)


PEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PEG  Public Service Enterprise (-0.94)


NFG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFG  National Fuel Gas (-0.95)







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