SAGE Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: SAGE could rebound significantly if upcoming Phase 2 trial results show positive outcomes. Additionally, the market might react favorably if partnerships enhance product accessibility, boosting investor confidence and demand.


Bearish Case: Recent failed trials and the collaboration setback with Biogen signal persistent volatility, undermining investor confidence. Continued underperformance might lead to further stock declines, driven by regulatory challenges and investor skepticism.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of a successful trial leading to heightened investor interest.

2. 30% chance of stagnation as market reacts to ongoing uncertainties.

3. 20% chance of severe decline due to further trial failures.

4. 10% chance of a strategic partnership mitigating risks.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread using SAGE’s high implied volatility. Buy August $15 calls and sell August $10 calls. This approach capitalizes on potential upside from any positive news and protects against downside while providing high reward: risk ratio.


July 25, 2024


Sage Therapeutics Forecast

SAGE      Sage Therapeutics











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SAGE



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.58)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.48)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAGE



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.48)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.58)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.62)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.66)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAGE



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.58)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.48)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.62)





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