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SAGE Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: SAGE's bullish potential lies in a successful depression treatment launch and significant market demand, evidenced by growing options interest and increased trading volumes in calls.



Bearish Case: Persistent regulatory challenges, historical underperformance, and current mean-reverting trends suggest high volatility and possible continued stock decline.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 55% chance of successful drug launch with moderate price gains due to unmet needs.
  • 30% chance of stagnation due to regulatory and market skepticism.
  • 15% chance of significant decline from trial failures.



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March 28, 2025


Sage Therapeutics Forecast

SAGE        Sage Therapeutics

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SAGE


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (0.85)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.8)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (0.79)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.78)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAGE


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


LYFT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYFT  Lyft (0.01)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (-0.01)


DKL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKL  Delek Logistics Partners LP - Unit (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAGE


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (-0.83)


AIT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AIT  Applied Industrial (-0.83)


NOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOW  ServiceNow (-0.86)


MSI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MSI  Motorola (-0.87)


QTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QTWO  Q2 (-0.88)







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