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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Positive Phase 3 outcomes for Simufilam could significantly elevate SAVA's stock as market confidence heightens, bolstered by upcoming FDA reviews and recent optimism in trial results.



Bearish Case: Continued legal issues and skepticism regarding Simufilam's efficacy could depress SAVA's price, as investor confidence wanes amidst high implied volatility and uncertain market responses.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Regulatory approval for Simufilam (40% chance) could boost stock price to $40.

2. Unsuccessful trials (25% chance) may drop the price below $22.

3. Favorable legal resolutions (20% chance) could stabilize around $28.

4. Ongoing legal concerns (15% chance) could lead to further declines below $20.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish long volatility strategy. Buy SAVA $30 call options and sell $32 calls, targeting the November 15 expiration. With significant implied volatility spikes anticipated, this approach captures upward movement while managing risk effectively. This plan aligns with the positive market sentiment projected ahead of potential trial results.


November 12, 2024


Cassava Sciences Forecast

SAVA        Cassava Sciences

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SQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQ  Square (0.0)


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CLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLW  Clearwater Paper (-0.74)


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