BOX Forecast


Bullish Case: BOX's implied volatility implies potential upward price movement. With historically mean-reverting price action and modest recent gains, a call spread could capture upside in an improving market sentiment.


Bearish Case: The flat term structure and rising competition in cloud services suggest limited upside potential. With elevated short-term volatility and historical return profiles showing downside risk, a protective position might be needed.


Potential Outcomes: BOX sees a 40% chance of modest gains due to mean-reverting action, a 35% chance of flat performance amid high volatility, and a 25% chance of significant decline from competitive pressures.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish call debit spread expiring September: Buy BOX 27C, Sell BOX 30C. Terminal structure favors mean-reversion upwards with controlled risk. Timeframe: 2-3 months, capping risk while capitalizing on projected positive price movement.


July 20, 2024


Box Forecast

BOX      Box











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BOX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.37)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.29)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.05)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BOX



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.05)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.29)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.37)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BOX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.37)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.29)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.05)





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