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SBUX Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Starbucks' digital initiatives and expansion in China create growth opportunities. Despite challenges, their brand loyalty and menu innovations support bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: Labor disputes, legal issues, and market saturation create significant risks. High implied volatility suggests looming uncertainties, pressuring margins and stock price.

Potential Outcomes: Union resolution boosts brand (40%)
Competitive pressures reduce market share (30%)
New product launches stabilize growth (30%)

Trading Oracle: Given the flat term structure and Helium's bullish outlook, a Bullish Short Volatility Strategy is optimal. Sell ATM put options; buy OTM puts to hedge risk, leveraging high put volume and implied volatility.

April 06, 2025

Starbucks Forecast

SBUX Starbucks

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SBUX

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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SBUX

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ADM Archer Daniels Midland (-0.73)

DG Dollar General (-0.74)

GES Guess (-0.75)

TDW Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.76)

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