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SBUX Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Starbucks' turnaround efforts gain traction with new CEO strategies improving customer experiences, potentially boosting sales and investor confidence.



Bearish Case: Labor disputes continue, and competition intensifies, potentially pressuring margins and consumer sentiment, challenging the turnaround strategy.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 35% chance of successful legal battles enhancing brand trust.
  • 25% chance seasonal offerings boost revenue.
  • 25% chance of competition eroding market share.



Trading Oracle: Sell SBUX short-dated credit spreads to capitalize on high current implied volatility and bearish undertones. Favor selling the February 105/107 put spread, expiring in 2 weeks. This strategy provides a positive edge given the current implied volatility structure and an attractive reward-risk ratio for a short-term timeframe.


January 31, 2025


Starbucks Forecast

SBUX        Starbucks

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