XLI Forecast


Bullish Case: XLI's strong historical performance, high call option volume, and moderate volatility suggest a possible moderate upside. AI price forecast at +0.18% aligns with resilient sector fundamentals.


Bearish Case: Economic slowdown, elevated short-term put volumes, and higher Helium implied volatility indicate rising market concerns. XLI's historical returns also show periodic declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance of a 5-10% upside driven by fundamental strength.

2) 35% chance of a 5-10% downside correction on economic slowdown fears.

3) 25% chance of trendless trading due to mixed signals.


Trading Oracle: Trade a neutral-to-moderately-bearish credit spread. Sell XLI $125 call, buy XLI $130 call expiring ~60 days ahead. This captures elevated implied volatility, positive edge, with high reward:risk and 60% probability of profit.


July 21, 2024


Industrial Select Sector SPDR Forecast

XLI      Industrial Select Sector SPDR











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XLI



FAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FAS  Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares (0.98)


IWD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWD  iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.98)


VYM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VYM  Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx (0.98)


SPYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYV  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value (0.98)


XLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLF  Financial Select Sector SPDR (0.97)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XLI



KLIC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KLIC  Kulicke & Soffa Industries (-0.0)


GPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPN  Global Payments (0.0)


BHP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHP  BHP Group Limited (0.01)


NOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOC  Northrop Grumman (0.01)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XLI



DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.93)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.95)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.95)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.96)





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