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SHAK Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Shake Shack's expansion strategy and strong brand loyalty underpin its potential for growth. Improved digital sales and menu innovations could drive profitability in a recovering economy.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and competitive pressures, exacerbated by recent price drops, indicate ongoing market skepticism. Regulatory challenges and consumer price backlash threaten near-term stability.

Potential Outcomes: Expansion success: 60% chance,
Menu innovation success: 50% chance,
Regulatory challenges limit growth: 30% chance,
Continued price resistance: 40% chance.

Trading Oracle: Given the high implied volatility and market skepticism, consider a Bearish Short Volatility strategy. Selling ATM call options and buying OTM call options captures premium and limits risk, aligning with the current volatility surface.

April 06, 2025

Shake Shack Forecast

SHAK Shake Shack

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SHAK

BAH Booz Allen Hamilton (0.0)

FERG (0.0)

ENVX Enovix (-0.01)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (-0.01)

NBR Nabors Industries (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SHAK

VSAT Viasat (-0.52)

AZN Astrazeneca (-0.6)

SHEL Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.65)

TWO Two Harbors Investment (-0.67)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.76)

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