Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increased Bitcoin adoption and favorable U.S. regulations post-election could drive SMLR upwards. With its strategic bitcoin accumulation, Semler's earnings may accelerate, mirroring historical trends of high returns over two-year holding spans from past bullish cycles.

Bearish Case: A downturn in Bitcoin prices or negative regulatory developments could heavily impact SMLR, as its valuation is closely tied to crypto performance. Mean reversion trends from the historical return surface also signal potential declines short-term.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong Bitcoin price surge +40% (30%)
2. Regulatory hurdles emerge -20% (25%)
3. Continuous institutional investment +25% (20%)
4. SMLR revenue growth slows -15% (15%)
5. Mean reversion signals downturn -10% (10%)

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread strategy. Buy January 2025 $45 calls and sell January 2025 $52 calls, leveraging expected volatility increase as Bitcoin potentially reaches new highs. Projecting a price target around $55 with a high probability of profitability should lead to substantial gains.

November 20, 2024