SPHD Forecast


Bullish Case: SPHD’s consistent high dividends and low volatility profile appeal to income-focused investors. Market uncertainties can drive demand for stable, income-generating assets.


Bearish Case: Implied volatility surfaces show increased market uncertainty, potentially undermining SPHD's appeal. Historical returns reflect limited price appreciation over holding periods.


Potential Outcomes:

1. SPHD appreciates due to continued high dividends (30%).

2. Market volatility reduces SPHD demand, leading to moderate downside (40%).

3. Neutral price movement persists (30%). These estimates reflect market sentiment and SPHD's historical data.


Trading Oracle: Trade a 3-month debit spread favoring a bearish outlook. Buy the 46.00 P, sell the 45.00 P. This setup exploits higher implied volatility and limited upside. Expect moderate declines or range-bound movement. High reward-to-risk, leveraging mispriced puts.


July 19, 2024


Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Vol Forecast

SPHD      Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Vol











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPHD



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.49)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.59)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPHD



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.49)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.59)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.68)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPHD



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.49)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.59)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.68)





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