STLD Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: STLD's resilience and strategic expansions foster optimism, supported by strong earnings and a mean-reverting price trend. Current low implied volatility offers attractive entry points for growth. HeliumHelium




Bearish Case: Persistently high inventories and potential demand slowdown due to macroeconomic pressures present downside risks. Backwardation in implied volatility indicates investor uncertainty. HeliumHelium




Potential Outcomes: Economic resilience fuels 40% price recovery. 40% chance of price stagnation due to cyclicality. 20% economic downturn leads to reduced demand. HeliumHelium




Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread: buy $130 call, sell $140 call for March 2025. Leveraging backwardation in volatility, target mean-reversion trend over 2 months. Strong earnings and strategic expansions back potential gains with high reward:risk. No fluff, maximize alpha.



January 22, 2025


Steel Dynamics Forecast

STLD        Steel Dynamics











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APH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APH  Amphenol (0.69)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to STLD



SRPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRPT  Sarepta Therapeutics (-0.0)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.0)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.0)


INDI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INDI  Indie Semiconductor (-0.01)


TNK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNK  Teekay Tankers (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against STLD



NKLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKLA  Nikola (-0.51)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (-0.55)


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (-0.59)


CALX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CALX  Calix (-0.6)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.69)









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