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STLD Forecast

Bullish Case: Positive guidance and ongoing construction demand could lead to a short squeeze, accelerating STLD's recovery and propelling prices beyond $145.

Bearish Case: Weak steel demand and potential economic downturn could result in a 10-20% price drop, particularly if Q4 earnings disappoint or external economic factors worsen.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Q4 earnings surprise to the upside: 30% chance, potential rally to $150+.

2. Earnings meet expectations: 50% chance, slight fluctuations within 5%.

3. Earnings miss expectations: 20% chance, price drop to $130 or lower.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish trade using a debit spread: buy STLD $140 call and sell $145 call for December expiration. Expect a high reward/risk ratio with limited downside. Given current implied volatility levels, this setup benefits from potential price rallies through Q1 2025.

November 19, 2024

Steel Dynamics Forecast

STLD Steel Dynamics

Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with STLD

EMR Emerson Electric (0.84)

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CG Carlyle (0.8)

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TRMB Trimble (0.77)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to STLD

LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. (-0.0)

BAX Baxter International (-0.01)

BEN Franklin Resources (0.01)

CTAS Cintas (-0.01)

TRP TC Energy (0.01)

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Assets that tend to move strongly against STLD

WPC W. P. Carey (-0.63)

TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.65)

OLPX Olaplex (-0.66)

ADBE Adobe (-0.68)

ERY Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.79)

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