Bullish Case: UBS's recent strategic acquisitions and AI investments leverage synergies, boosting operational efficiency and enhancing market confidence for long-term gains, as indicated by historical returns.

Bearish Case: Concerns over unresolved legal issues, challenging integration of past acquisitions, and economic headwinds pose significant risks, potentially leading to market corrections and reduced investor confidence.

Potential Outcomes:

• 35% chance: Continued strategic integration boosts stock.
• 30% risk: Economic headwinds weaken performance.
• 25% chance: Regulatory hurdles present challenges.
• 10% risk: Severe downturn from external shocks.

Trading Oracle: Sell $32.5 strike call options and buy more $35.0 call options, playing on UBS's flat implied volatility and balanced sentiment. This Bearish Short Volatility strategy aligns with current uncertainty, optimizing return while hedging against downside risks from market fluctuations.

June 20, 2025