UBS Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bullish Case: UBS's historical mean-reverting behavior suggests continued moderate gains. Helium's implied volatility is higher, implying potential undervaluation by the market.

Bearish Case: Economic concerns and legal issues (e.g., Credit suisse takeover impact) coupled with market implied volatility lower than Helium implies potential overestimation of stability.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Regulatory changes (60%)

2. Positive market trends (25%)

3. New COVID variant impact (15%).

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May 30, 2024

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