STLD Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: STLD’s ongoing expansions and strong fundamentals suggest growth, potentially aligning with mean-reversion to boost share price as steel demand remains solid in key sectors.




Bearish Case: Economic uncertainties and potential steel demand downturn, along with flat implied volatility, suggest downside risks, especially if macroeconomic factors exert pressure.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Stock price stagnates due to cyclicality (50%)
  2. Earnings beat leads to a rally (25%)
  3. Demand drop causes price decline (25%)




Trading Oracle:

Given the flat volatility term structure and potential for range-bound price action, a Bearish Short Volatility strategy is optimal. This captures premium, leveraging high odds of profit and limited upside expectation.



May 15, 2025


Steel Dynamics Forecast

STLD        Steel Dynamics











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