SU Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Suncor's shift towards sustainability and market positioning could drive long-term growth, supported by stable oil prices and strategic investments.




Bearish Case: Environmental liabilities and regulatory scrutiny pose significant risks, compounded by historical mean-reverting price behavior and market volatility.




Potential Outcomes: Likely outcomes: oil price rise supports growth (55%), regulatory hits drop prices (35%), stable market sustains current levels (10%).




Trading Oracle: Trade a bearish short-term debit spread. Buy $34 puts and sell $33 puts expiring in ~21 days. High edge: 688%, high volatility suggests potential downward movement. Capitalizes on heightened put activity and Helium odds favoring downside action. Tight risk management advised.



December 24, 2024


Suncor Energy Forecast

SU        Suncor Energy











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SU



EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.77)


FENY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FENY  Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity MSCI Energy Index (0.72)


VDE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VDE  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy (0.71)


HBM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HBM  Hudbay Minerals (0.69)


HMY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HMY  Harmony Gold Mining (0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SU



FOUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOUR  Shift4 Payments (0.0)


SBGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBGI  Sinclair Broadcast Group (-0.0)


TTEK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTEK  Tetra Tech (0.0)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.0)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SU



FOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOLD  Amicus Therapeutics (-0.58)


AMPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMPS  Altus Power (-0.58)


DDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDD  3D Systems (-0.59)


ACAD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACAD  Acadia Pharmaceuticals (-0.66)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.78)









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