Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Suncor's recent volume spikes in call options (78% higher) and low P/B ratio signal robust institutional interest, suggesting price support. Helium's implied volatility forecasts have shown a slight upward trend, indicating increased trading activity and potential bullish momentum.

Bearish Case: Current market sentiment is undermined by high implied volatility and past environmental litigation risks. Declining oil prices could pressurize Suncor’s profitability, alongside a lack of definitive bullish catalysts in the near term, suggesting vulnerability to negative news.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Oil prices stabilize, leading to a 40% chance of a price rise to $45 (40% ROI).

2. Legal issues worsen, imposing a 30% risk of a drop to $35.

3. Institutional investment boosts demand leading to a 20% chance of hitting $50.

4. Continued market volatility affects every strike, with a 10% probability of price remaining flat.

Trading Oracle: Engage a bullish strategy via a short put credit spread. Sell $39 puts and buy $37 puts, targeting a 66% probability of profit with historical performance supporting this approach. Featuring high reward-to-risk ratio, the strategy capitalizes on low volatility and captures the potential upside in Suncor’s stock amidst market uncertainty.

November 21, 2024