Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: TGNA's financial stability bolstered by institutional buying and upcoming political ad spending suggests a potential for price recovery. Additionally, the resolution of ongoing disputes may stimulate investor confidence and boost revenues.

Bearish Case: Continued operational disruptions from carriage disputes and growing cord-cutting pressures could lead to sustained declines in subscriber numbers and advertising revenues, negatively impacting TGNA's market performance.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 35% chance of bullish momentum from political ad spending boosting revenues.

2. 40% chance of ongoing viewer loss affecting profitability.

3. 25% chance of valuation stabilization as institutional investors increase positions.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying 1 TGNA $17.00 call and selling 1 $18.00 call, anticipative of stabilization or upside in price driven by upcoming ad revenues. This strategy targets a return of 2.0 with 28% odds of profit, while capitalizing on high volatility. Balance risk with a potential pivot to credit spreads if market conditions shift.

November 08, 2024