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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The market is anticipating rate cuts, likely driving TMF prices up. Implied volatility trends suggest positive sentiment with a forecasted price increase of +1.51%. Demand for calls may exceed supply, further supporting bullish positions.



Bearish Case: If inflation pressures persist and the Fed delays rate cuts, TMF may decline. Current high implied volatility indicates uncertainty, increasing risk for holders in a potential downturn.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Rate cuts materialize (40%); bullish impact on TMF.

2) Extended rate wait (30%); TMF stabilizes but risks remain.

3) Inflation worsens (20%); TMF shows weakness.

4) External market shocks (10%); volatility spikes, likely dramatic movement in either direction.



Trading Oracle: Given the current environment favoring volatility, consider a debit spread: buy TMF 11/01/2024 49.00 C and sell 51.00 C aiming for a 67% probability of profit. This captures positive delta while positioning for potential upside if rates move in your favor, balancing risk effectively.


October 27, 2024


Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares Forecast

TMF        Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TMF


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.97)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.94)


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.93)


TLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TLH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond (0.9)


MUB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUB  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares National Muni Bond (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TMF


MO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MO  Altria (-0.0)


ISRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ISRG  Intuitive Surgical (-0.0)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.0)


NRDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRDS  Nerdwallet (-0.0)


GXO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GXO  GXO Logistics (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TMF


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.66)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.68)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.88)


TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBF  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (-0.91)







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