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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Potential rate cuts by the Fed could elevate TMF prices, especially given the rise in implied volatility indicating increased market interest in upside calls. Historical trends support TMF appreciation during rate cut periods.



Bearish Case: Persistently high inflation and the Fed's unwillingness to cut rates may depress TMF prices further. Elevated implied volatility suggests potential for downside risk despite recent price stabilization.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Rate cuts by Q1 2025 (40%) - TMF up.
  2. Stability in job growth (30%) - TMF remains flat.
  3. Delayed rate cuts due to inflation (20%) - TMF down.
  4. External shocks (10%) - Volatility spikes.



Trading Oracle: Given current conditions, a bearish short volatility strategy is recommended. Sell 3 $45.50 strike calls and buy 8 $52.00 strike calls to limit risk while capitalizing on high volatility, aiming for a 15% potential return. This balances risk with a positive edge based on current market forecasts and historical returns.


November 24, 2024


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TMF


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (0.78)


OLPX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLPX  Olaplex (0.73)


IGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGT  International Game Technology (0.67)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (0.64)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TMF


BOIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOIL  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (0.0)


HUT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUT  Hut 8 Mining (-0.0)


CSGP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CSGP  Costar Group (0.0)


ACM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACM  AECOM (-0.0)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TMF


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.67)


WFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFC  Wells Fargo (-0.69)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.69)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (-0.71)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.87)







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