TREX Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TREX's robust historical returns and innovation potential signal optimism. Stable demand and strategic growth initiatives support upward momentum.




Bearish Case: High valuation concerns and recent price decline suggest caution. Elevated put volumes imply bearish bias, with saturation risks in the decking market.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Growth: 25% - Historical gains and strategic initiatives
  • Consolidation: 30% - Neutral AI forecast
  • Correction: 45% - Valuation and economic risks




Trading Oracle: Bearish long volatility via put debit spread (Buy $62.5, Sell $60.0, 44 days exp.) offers asymmetric risk/reward given high implied volatility and recent downtrend. Maximize upside with limited downside exposure.



January 10, 2025


TREX Co. Forecast

TREX        TREX Co.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TREX



NGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NGL  NGL Energy Partners (0.89)


TRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRIP  TripAdvisor (0.89)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.86)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.86)


DIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DIN  Dine Brands (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TREX



DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (-0.0)


V Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   V  Visa (-0.01)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (0.02)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.02)


XYL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XYL  Xylem (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TREX



KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.77)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (-0.79)


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (-0.82)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.83)


CDNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDNA  Caredx (-0.84)









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