Bullish Case: A potential recovery in advertising revenue and a positive earnings surprise could leverage investor sentiment. The high implied volatility indicates opportunities for significant price movement upwards in the near term.

Bearish Case: Continued operational challenges and regulatory scrutiny may further erode investor confidence. The historical return surface suggests a higher probability of underperformance, particularly in a declining market structure.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings surprise (30%) - Potential outperformance influencing upward trends.
2. Regulatory challenges escalate (30%) - Risk to future operations may drive down valuations.
3. Market-wide correction impacting sentiment (25%) - General market pressure could overwhelm stock performance.
4. Increased competition in streaming (15%) - Risks intensifying pressure on market share.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread by buying the TV 12/20/2024 2.50 C and selling the TV 01/17/2025 2.50 C, targeting a 1-2 month horizon. The current high implied volatility suggests an opportunity to profit from potential near-term price recovery while minimizing risk from longer-term uncertainty.

December 03, 2024