ARVN Forecast


Bullish Case: ARVN's collaboration with Novartis on ARV-766 and the promising developments in their Phase 3 trials of vepdegestrant enhance their market potential and validate the protein degrader platform.


Bearish Case: Recent poor price performance, insider selling, and the high volatility environment might signal market uncertainty, regulatory delays, and failure in trial outcomes, impacting investor confidence.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful Phase 3 trial results (65%) could drive a 40%+ price rise.

2. Regulatory or clinical trial delays/failure (35%) could drive a 30%+ fall.

3. General market volatility (50%) introduces a 20% fluctuation in either direction.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread (Helium Long Volatility). Buy Jan 2025 30.00 C and sell Jan 2025 40.00 C. High potential gain from a likely positive trial result. Expected high volatility benefits from long position. Time outlook: 6 months.


June 30, 2024


Arvinas Forecast

ARVN      Arvinas











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