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TXN Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: TXN benefits from CHIPS Act funding ($1.61 billion) and expansion initiatives, positioning for growth in automotive and industrial sectors. Favorable implied volatility suggests investor confidence.

Bearish Case: Macroeconomic pressures and high valuation (P/B ratio of 12.8) present significant risks. Supply chain challenges and geopolitical tensions might hinder growth despite CHIPS Act benefits.

Potential Outcomes: 50% growth from funding and sector expansion; 35% macroeconomic pressures lead to downturn; 15% unforeseen geopolitical disruptions. Probability based on current market data and trends.

Trading Oracle: Utilize short-dated call debit spreads, focusing on March 2025, targeting $205 strike. Implied volatility backwardation and current bullish sentiment offer potential gains from short-term price recovery. Optimal reward-to-risk ratio expected.

January 24, 2025

Texas Instruments Forecast

TXN Texas Instruments

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Assets that tend to move strongly with TXN

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WPM Wheaton Precious Metals (0.78)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TXN

RIO Rio Tinto (-0.0)

FANG Diamondback Energy (-0.0)

IAC IAC InterActiveCorp. (-0.0)

AEHR Aehr Test Systems (-0.01)

TNK Teekay Tankers (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TXN

FRSH Freshworks (-0.71)

TDOC Teladoc Health (-0.73)

HTZ Hertz Global Holdings (-0.74)

ABCL AbCellera Biologics (-0.75)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.76)

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