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TYD Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Recent expectations for interest rate cuts and a low volatility environment favor a bullish outlook for TYD. Economic signals suggest potential stabilization, leading to price appreciation despite recent performance.



Bearish Case: Potential inflation increases or adverse economic news could pressure bond prices downward, impacting TYD negatively. The high implied volatility precursors market pessimism, increasing downside risks.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 40%: TYD stabilizes around $24.

2. 30%: TYD rises to $26-28 if rate cuts materialize.

3. 20%: TYD drops below $23 if economic data worsens.

4. 10%: TYD exceeds $30 if significant policy shifts occur.



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish long volatility strategy by buying TYD $24 puts and selling $22 puts, capitalizing on low market implied volatility and expected upward movement in the underlying. High reward:risk setup with potential for 100% return on investment. Focus on timing around economic announcements for optimal entry points.


November 14, 2024


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TYD        Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TYD


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.96)


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.93)


FXF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXF  Rydex Investments - Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc (0.87)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.84)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TYD


GLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLD  SPDR Gold Shares (-0.0)


MDB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MDB  MongoDB (0.0)


IDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IDR  Idaho Strategic Resources (0.0)


GSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GSK  Glaxosmithkline (-0.0)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TYD


HES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HES  Hess (-0.7)


STLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STLD  Steel Dynamics (-0.7)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (-0.73)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.77)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.94)







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