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UAE Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Improved geopolitical stability and ongoing investments in AI and real estate could drive substantial foreign investment, leading to price increases in the UAE market.



Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions, particularly the relationship impacts with Iran and potential sanctions, pose risks to investor confidence, which could lead to price declines in the UAE market.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Geopolitical stability improves (60%) – bullish.

2. Renewed sanctions imposed (30%) – bearish.

3. Continued real estate boom (50%) – bullish.

4. Regulatory reforms attract investment (40%) – bullish.

5. Heightened oil volatility due to conflicts (70%) – bearish.



Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread on UAE targeting 1-2 month expiries. The anticipated stability and potential growth from real estate and tech investments present a high reward:risk scenario. Capture upside from increased foreign investment while mitigating risks from geopolitical volatility.


December 10, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI UAE Forecast

UAE        BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI UAE

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