UDN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: UDN shows bullish potential with a mean-reverting trend and a recent price uptick, supported by a flat term structure indicating contained uncertainty.




Bearish Case: UDN faces bearish risks due to historical declines and external pressures affecting USD, though recent stability in implied volatility offers some balance.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 50% chance of stable prices due to mean reversion.
  • 30% probability of decline from historical trends.
  • 20% chance of short-term uptick from market volatility.




Trading Oracle:
Adopt the Bullish Long Volatility strategy to leverage potential UDN recovery. The recent uptick suggests positive shifts, with flat volatility structure providing a favorable entry point. This game plan capitalizes on market volatility while constraining downside.



May 11, 2025


Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Forecast

UDN        Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish











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XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (0.74)


GSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GSL  Global Ship Lease (0.73)


ASH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASH  Ashland (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UDN



DDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDD  3D Systems (-0.0)


PHG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHG  Koninklijke Philips (-0.0)


FDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FDX  Fedex (0.0)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.01)


RXRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RXRX  Recursion Pharmaceuticals (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UDN



UPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UPST  Upstart (-0.82)


YPF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YPF  YPF (-0.82)


GGAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GGAL  Grupo Financiero Galicia (-0.84)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (-0.84)


CALM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CALM  Cal-Maine Foods (-0.84)









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