USD Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: A resurgence in semiconductor demand may continue to drive USD upwards, supported by favorable historical returns and elevated call option trading volume, indicating market optimism around potential rate cuts.




Bearish Case: Persistent high implied volatility suggests significant market uncertainty and risk of a correction, especially with profit-taking pressures likely, given recent price drops from $111 to $63.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 1. Continued upward trend (30%) driven by sector strength.
  • 2. Profit-taking leads to stabilization (40%).
  • 3. Sharp correction around $60 (30%).




Trading Oracle: Focus on constructing a bullish call debit spread by buying $64 calls and selling $70 calls expiring in 21 days. This strategy allows for potential upside with a risk-return ratio of 1 to 2.2, leveraging high implied volatility for enhanced returns from anticipated price recovery.



November 30, 2024


ProShares Ultra Semiconductors Forecast

USD        ProShares Ultra Semiconductors











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USD



ONTO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONTO  Onto Innovation (0.87)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (0.85)


STX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STX  Seagate Technology (0.84)


NTAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTAP  Netapp (0.84)


ROM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROM  ProShares Ultra Technology (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USD



LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (-0.0)


LMND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LMND  Lemonade (0.0)


SNBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNBR  Sleep Number (0.01)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (-0.01)


ABEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABEO  Abeona Therapeutics (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USD



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.75)


YANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YANG  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (-0.76)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (-0.76)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.77)


COUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COUR  Coursera (-0.8)









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