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USD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Potential resurgence in semiconductor demand aligns with positive historical returns and low implied volatility. Bullish sentiment is bolstered by 39% increase in USD over past 90 days.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and increased put option trading suggest market concerns about potential corrections. External pressures such as geopolitical tensions could trigger significant downturns.

Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of upward breakout driven by semiconductor demand.
40% chance of stabilization near current levels.
30% chance of downward correction due to heightened volatility.

March 30, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USD

DELL Dell (0.86)

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M Macy's (0.78)

UUUU Energy Fuels (0.73)

ATKR Atkore (0.71)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USD

IMO Imperial Oil (-0.01)

EIX Edison International (0.01)

COHR Coherent (0.01)

MRVL Marvell Technology (-0.01)

COO Cooper Companies (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USD

GL Globe Life (-0.63)

KO Coca-Cola (-0.64)

PM Philip Morris International (-0.68)

VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.78)

VXX iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.78)

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