USD Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Strong sector performance, historical returns, and a 38% higher bullish risk suggest potential for continued gains in USD, supported by positive macroeconomic trends and investment in quantum computing.


Bearish Case: Elevated volatility and historical correction trends indicate potential for downward pressure, exacerbated by overvaluation and recent high gains, as shown by Helium's elevated uncertainty forecast.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued sector-driven uptrend (40%).

2. Market correction from overvaluation (30%).

3. Stabilization at current levels (30%). These predictions consider historical performance, macroeconomic trends, and current implied volatilities.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread: Buy USD 165.00 call, sell USD 185.00 call expiring in 60 days. This strategy captures the potential upside while limiting downside risk, leveraging Helium's positive edge, high historical returns and implied volatilities, aiming for high reward:risk and a historically-backed probability of profit.


July 13, 2024


ProShares Ultra Semiconductors Forecast

USD      ProShares Ultra Semiconductors











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USD



SMH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMH  VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (1.0)


QLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QLD  ProShares Ultra QQQ (0.99)


SPLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLG  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 (0.99)


IYW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IYW  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Technology (0.99)


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYG  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (0.99)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USD



IPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IPI  Intrepid Potash (0.0)


BALY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BALY  Ballys (0.0)


UBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UBT  ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (-0.0)


W Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   W  Wayfair (0.01)


CLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLX  Clorox (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USD



DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.92)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.96)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.99)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.99)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.99)





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