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UGA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: UGA's growth potential is robust with strategic partnerships and positive market sentiment. Implied volatility forecasts are stable, supporting favorable pricing trends. Increased call volumes indicate bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: UGA faces risks from market volatility and recent price dips. The flat term structure and high implied volatility suggest potential overvaluation and correction risks. Concerns over energy sector instability add to downside pressure.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rises due to strategic partnerships (60%).

2. Correction due to high volatility (30%).

3. Stable trading as market finds equilibrium (10%).

May 20, 2025

United States Commodity Funds Forecast

UGA United States Commodity Funds

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UGA

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (0.81)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (0.77)

ALLY Ally Financial (0.68)

HTGC Hercules (0.65)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (0.65)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UGA

DXC DXC Technology (-0.01)

NIO NIO (0.01)

PHG Koninklijke Philips (0.01)

PNC PNC Financial Services (-0.01)

BAX Baxter International (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UGA

PPL PPL (-0.63)

VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.63)

POST Post (-0.66)

FNF Fidelity National Financial (-0.69)

SCO ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.93)

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