UGA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: UGA has shown robust growth over the past years, surging 121.5% from five years ago. Continual growth paired with a current bullish sentiment (28% more bullish risk) makes a compelling case for a continuance of this upward trajectory.


Bearish Case: Recent flat price action, paired with high implied volatility, suggests potential over-valuation and market uncertainty. With little change just over the past month and week, the threat of a price correction or stagnation looms.


Potential Outcomes:

1. UGA maintains its upward trend (Probability 60%).

2. Volatility spikes leading to sharp price corrections (Probability 30%).

3. Consolidation around the current price range from market equilibrium (Probability 10%).


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April 25, 2024


United States Commodity Funds Forecast

UGA        United States Commodity Funds
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: RANDOM (?)











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CVI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVI  CVR Energy (0.87)


GSG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GSG  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed (0.85)


ERX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERX  Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares (0.84)


XES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XES  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Oil & Gas Equipment and Services (0.84)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.83)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to UGA



MO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MO  Altria (-0.0)


DOCN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOCN  DigitalOcean (0.0)


KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (0.0)


CNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNC  Centene (-0.0)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against UGA



CCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCI  Crown Castle International (-0.6)


NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (-0.61)


VRSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRSN  Verisign (-0.62)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.67)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.74)





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