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UGA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: High implied volatility and favorable long-term price returns suggest growing demand, supported by bullish market sentiment Helium Helium.

Bearish Case: Elevated put option volume and flat price action indicate potential for downside risk and market skepticism Helium Helium.

Potential Outcomes:

1. UGA rises driven by commodity demand (70%).

2. Decline from volatility spikes (30%).

Trading Oracle: Execute a debit spread—buy UGA Mar 2025 $65 calls, sell $68 calls. Leverage implied volatility and moderate bullish sentiment for optimal returns over 3 months. No fluff. Trade the edge.

December 27, 2024

United States Commodity Funds Forecast

UGA United States Commodity Funds

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UGA

BNO United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.87)

OXY Occidental Petroleum (0.86)

PSX Phillips 66 (0.82)

WFRD Weatherford International plc - New (0.79)

XOP SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.75)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UGA

TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.0)

IAC IAC InterActiveCorp. (-0.0)

PLBY PLBY (0.02)

SHIP Seanergy Maritime (0.03)

DKS Dicks Sporting Goods (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UGA

CSTL Castle Biosciences (-0.76)

EPR EPR Properties (-0.79)

CWAN Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.8)

COMM CommScope (-0.82)

RDFN Redfin (-0.83)

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