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UGA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: UGA's implied volatility is high, and historical returns suggest potential for substantial gains, especially with increased call volume indicating bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: UGA's recent price decline and flat term structure indicate potential downside. High volatility in puts and geopolitical risks suggest caution.

Potential Outcomes: Price increase driven by demand recovery: 55% chance.
Stabilization around current prices: 30% chance.
Further decline due to geopolitical factors: 15% chance.

April 22, 2025

United States Commodity Funds Forecast

UGA United States Commodity Funds

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UGA

OVV Ovintiv (0.83)

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (0.82)

NFE New Fortress Energy (0.77)

OXY Occidental Petroleum (0.7)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.68)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UGA

PHG Koninklijke Philips (0.01)

BHC Bausch Health Companies (-0.01)

FLNC Fluence Energy (0.01)

WD Walker & Dunlop (-0.01)

BB BlackBerry (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UGA

FNF Fidelity National Financial (-0.74)

DUK Duke Energy (-0.74)

ADC Agree Realty (-0.77)

CB Chubb (-0.78)

SCO ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.91)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.