Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: As implied volatility trends downward, UNM's price may stabilize around $71.32, considering historical return probabilities favor moderate growth driven by steady dividends and institutional support. Recent bullish price predictions bolster this outlook.

Bearish Case: Rising implied volatility signals market uncertainty and potential downside risks from political events. Insider selling and bearish sentiment in options data can push UNM's price lower, especially if macroeconomic factors worsen.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of price increasing to $75 if institutional buying continues.

2. 30% likelihood of stagnation around $71.

3. 20% chance of a drop to $65 due to elevated implied volatility and market conditions.

Trading Oracle: Implement a short put credit spread by selling $70 puts and buying $67.50 puts, targeting 39-day expiry. This strategy takes advantage of decreased volatility while allowing for potential profits from stability in UNM's price with 78% odds of profit.

November 13, 2024