Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: UNM's demonstrated resilience in price performance, coupled with its attractive dividend yield and potential institutional interest, could drive prices higher despite recent volatility. The implied volatility is also trending downwards, suggesting a favorable environment for bullish strategies.

Bearish Case: Heightened market uncertainty reflected in increased put option volume poses risks to UNM's price stability. The recent cyber breach's potential regulatory implications may further erode investor confidence, leading to downward price pressure.

Potential Outcomes:

• 25% chance of price stagnation near $73 due to current volatility.
• 35% chance of price growth to $80 supported by institutional buying.
• 40% chance of price dip to $65 due to insider selling and regulatory scrutiny.

Trading Oracle: Consider a short put credit spread by selling the $70 put and buying the $67.5 put. This trade structure leverages tight risk control in a mildly bullish scenario with favorable odds and substantial potential return ($3.00 risk to make $2.00). Expect a 75% probability of profit as market volatility stabilizes.

December 11, 2024