AI URE Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bullish Case: Bullish sentiment for URE hinges on strong historical performance, notably a 35% likelihood of price recovery after holding periods exceeding 6 months. With current implied volatility skewed towards URE's potential upside, an economic recovery could catalyze demand in the real estate sector.


Bearish Case: Bearish outlook stems from persistent flat price action and elevated implied volatility, suggesting increased uncertainty. Market apprehension may lead to a significant downward adjustment, particularly if economic indicators falter, risking a correction below $65.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued flat performance (60%).

2. 20% correction if economic conditions worsen (30%).

3. Optimistic rally towards $85 within 60 days if momentum shifts favoably (25%).

4. Severe volatility leading to forced sell-off (10%). Probabilities are concluded from historical return patterns.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a prudent bullish debit spread using URE 09/20/2024 73.00 C and 78.00 C options. Current market conditions favor long volatility strategies with elevated implied volatility serving as a catalyst for significant price movements. This approach balances risk and enhances potential reward-to-risk profiles.


September 20, 2024


ProShares Ultra Real Estate Forecast

URE        ProShares Ultra Real Estate











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Assets that tend to move strongly with URE



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XLRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLRE  Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (0.99)


CUBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CUBE  CubeSmart (0.94)


IEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEI  BTC iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to URE



AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (-0.0)


MNST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNST  Monster Beverage (-0.0)


SM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SM  SM Energy (0.0)


CSGP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CSGP  Costar Group (0.0)


MPW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPW  Medical Properties (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against URE



LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.77)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.92)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.97)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.98)









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