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USO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: USO's backwardation implies bullish sentiment and potential supply constraints. Increased call option volume indicates optimism for price recovery.

Bearish Case: Ongoing geopolitical concerns and regulatory shifts threaten oil demand. The current flat price action and elevated IV suggest potential downside risks.

Potential Outcomes: Continued sideways movement amid uncertainty (50%).
Sharp upside due to supply disruptions (30%).
Further decline if demand weakens (20%).

March 18, 2025

United States Commodity Funds Forecast

USO United States Commodity Funds

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USO

OVV Ovintiv (0.69)

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (0.65)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.62)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (0.6)

HES Hess (0.57)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USO

FUL H.B. Fuller (-0.0)

CG Carlyle (0.01)

CZR Caesars Entertainment (-0.01)

OPCH Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (0.02)

AIG American International (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USO

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (-0.65)

CWEN Clearway Energy (-0.65)

CCK Crown Holdings (-0.69)

CB Chubb (-0.73)

SCO ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.98)

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