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USO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: USO's backwardation implies bullish sentiment and potential supply constraints. Increased call option volume indicates optimism for price recovery.

Bearish Case: Ongoing geopolitical concerns and regulatory shifts threaten oil demand. The current flat price action and elevated IV suggest potential downside risks.

Potential Outcomes: Continued sideways movement amid uncertainty (50%).
Sharp upside due to supply disruptions (30%).
Further decline if demand weakens (20%).

March 18, 2025

United States Commodity Funds Forecast

USO United States Commodity Funds

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USO

OVV Ovintiv (0.69)

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (0.65)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.62)

TRIP TripAdvisor (0.61)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (0.6)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USO

ABEV Ambev (-0.01)

MYGN Myriad Genetics (0.01)

CG Carlyle (0.01)

CZR Caesars Entertainment (-0.01)

GTLB Gitlab (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USO

PNW Pinnacle West (-0.65)

PG Procter & Gamble (-0.68)

HEI Heico (-0.69)

XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (-0.72)

SCO ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.98)

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