USO Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: USO's backwardation indicates bullish sentiment, with potential supply constraints. Elevated call volumes suggest market optimism for price recovery.




Bearish Case: Persistent high volatility and a bearish trend in recent returns highlight market caution. Elevated put volumes suggest downside risk amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Stable trading range (50%) due to geopolitical tensions and stable IV.
  • Price rebound (30%) driven by supply constraints.
  • Further decline (20%) as economic pressures persist.



May 08, 2025


United States Commodity Funds Forecast

USO        United States Commodity Funds











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USO



PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.71)


QYLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QYLD  Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call (0.58)


ALLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALLY  Ally Financial (0.58)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.57)


BA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BA  Boeing (0.57)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USO



LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.0)


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (-0.0)


RYAAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RYAAY  Ryanair (-0.0)


PHG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHG  Koninklijke Philips (0.0)


MAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAC  Macerich (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USO



VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.6)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.6)


DUK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DUK  Duke Energy (-0.6)


ED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ED  Consolidated Edison (-0.68)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.99)









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