USO Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: USO is in backwardation, indicating bullish sentiment. High call volume suggests potential upward pressure, with geopolitical tensions possibly driving oil demand higher.




Bearish Case: Recent price decline, geopolitical stability concerns, and weak economic data suggest potential downside. Implied volatility suggests market hesitation, risking further drops.




Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued volatility (35%).

2) Short-term upside from geopolitical tensions (40%).

3) Bearish correction with economic data (25%).




Trading Oracle: Trade a short-term bullish call debit spread: Buy USO Feb 77 Call, sell USO Feb 82 Call. Expiring in 10 days. Leverage backwardation and current bullish sentiment for a high probability, quick profit trade.



February 07, 2025


United States Commodity Funds Forecast

USO        United States Commodity Funds











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USO



FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.68)


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (0.57)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.56)


USAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USAC  USA Compression (0.55)


SPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPT  Sprout Social (0.52)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USO



AMZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMZN  Amazon.com (0.0)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.0)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (0.0)


WSC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WSC  WillScot Mobile Mini (0.01)


SKYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKYT  SkyWater Technology (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USO



AMCR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMCR  Amcor (-0.56)


RMAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMAX  RE/MAX (-0.6)


MCD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCD  McDonald's (-0.6)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.6)


OLPX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLPX  Olaplex (-0.67)









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