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USO Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: With USO's term structure in backwardation, potential supply constraints could push prices higher short-term, coupled with slightly elevated implied volatility indicating bullish sentiment.



Bearish Case: USO's recent downward trend combined with elevated IV suggests market caution. Persistent geopolitical tensions and regulatory risks might continue to exert downward pressure on prices.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Mean reversion upward (30%).

2. Continued downtrend (50%).

3. Sideways movement (20%). Backwardation supports short-term optimism, but geopolitical and economic risks pose bearish threats.


April 12, 2025


United States Commodity Funds Forecast

USO        United States Commodity Funds

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USO


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (0.68)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.67)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (0.63)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.55)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.55)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USO


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.0)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (-0.01)


SLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLS  SELLAS Life Sciences (-0.01)


NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (0.02)


HRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRI  Herc (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USO


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.53)


HIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIG  Hartford Financial Services (-0.55)


FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (-0.59)


UL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UL  Unilever (-0.62)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.98)







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