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USO Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: The backwardation in USO's IV curve suggests near-term supply concerns. Coupled with bullish risk sentiment and a 37% higher call volume, USO may rally.



Bearish Case: Elevated IV in short-term options highlights potential downside risks amid historical volatility patterns and sentiment skepticism.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued upward trend (30%).

2. Moderate decline due to volatility spikes (50%).

3. Neutral drift (20%).



Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish call debit spread: Buy USO Feb 78 Call, sell USO Feb 82 Call. Short-term outlook leverages backwardation and potential upside. High reward-to-risk due to rising bullish sentiment and low current option volume, enhancing the profit edge opportunity.


January 11, 2025


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USO        United States Commodity Funds

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USO


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.99)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.7)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.68)


GTE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTE  Gran Tierra Energy (0.67)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.6)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USO


PLBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLBY  PLBY (-0.0)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.0)


WHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WHR  Whirlpool (0.0)


UBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UBS  UBS (0.0)


PATH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PATH  UiPath (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USO


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (-0.51)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.51)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (-0.56)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.61)


MCD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCD  McDonald's (-0.61)







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