VAW Forecast


Bullish Case: Robust economic recovery and sector demand could drive VAW above $205, leveraging high implied volatility in options as favorable for aggressive positions, especially with institutional support evident in recent trades.


Bearish Case: A downturn in economic growth and upcoming earnings reports that disappoint may push VAW back toward $190, as increased bearish sentiment and volatility could capitalize on existing negative market trends.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic recovery sustains (40%, +10%);

2. Market volatility persists (30%, -5%);

3. Broader market downturn (20%, -15%);

4. VAW stabilizes at $196 (10%, 0%).


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish 200/210 call debit spread aimed at August expiration. This strategy capitalizes on short-term volatility spike post-earnings, given strong institutional backing. High implied vol. suggests entries below $3 to maximize potential profit with low risk.


July 25, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Materials Forecast

VAW      Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Materials











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VAW



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.57)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.6)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VAW



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.56)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.57)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.6)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VAW



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.57)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.6)





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