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Bullish Case: Viatris could see revenue growth from successful drug launches, with favorable patent outcomes boosting market sentiment. Strong recent performance and high implied volatility indicate potential upside in the near term.



Bearish Case: Legal challenges persist, creating operational risks and potentially dragging on stock performance. High implied volatility reflects market apprehension regarding upcoming risks, suggesting a cautious outlook.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40%: Successful drug launches lead to increased revenue.
  • 30%: Continued legal issues impact profitability.
  • 20%: Market volatility exacerbates price fluctuations.
  • 10%: Competitive pressures from emerging generics dampen growth.



Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bearish credit spread by selling $14.00 calls and buying $15.00 calls, capitalizing on high implied volatility with ~81% probability of profit. This strategy offers a strong risk/reward profile if market conditions worsen over 51 days.


November 30, 2024


Viatris Forecast

VTRS        Viatris

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