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YPF Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: YPF's mean-reverting nature and optimistic social sentiment could trigger upward momentum. Stable political environment might support ongoing Vaca Muerta success, boosting revenues.



Bearish Case: Potential political instability, inflation, and legal risks threaten YPF's margins. Elevated volatility and past underperformance could increase downside pressure on the stock.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued Vaca Muerta success (65%): Drives growth.

2. Political stability aids growth (20%): Enhances revenue.

3. Inflation impacts growth (15%): Compresses margins.



Trading Oracle: Strategically, a Bullish Short Volatility strategy suits current conditions. With YPF's positive edge and mean reversion patterns, selling ATM puts and buying more OTM puts benefits from volatility capture while controlling risk.


May 03, 2025











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