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AAP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: AAP's recent earnings surprise and strong technical setup hint at potential upward momentum. Positive social sentiment and increased call option volumes support a recovery case.



Bearish Case: Persistent high implied volatility and past financial struggles indicate continued downside risk. Pressure from store closures and economic challenges may inhibit recovery.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance of continued financial strain due to ongoing expenses.
  • 40% chance of a modest recovery driven by restructuring.
  • 30% chance of market stabilization as management execution improves.



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June 22, 2025


Advance Auto Parts Forecast

AAP        Advance Auto Parts

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AAP


ELF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ELF  e.l.f. Beauty (0.82)


ALLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALLY  Ally Financial (0.76)


GOOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOS  Canada Goose Holdings Inc (Subord Vot Shs) (0.75)


NUVB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NUVB  Nuvation Bio (0.74)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AAP


PCRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCRX  Pacira BioSciences (0.0)


KEYS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KEYS  Keysight (0.0)


IYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IYT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Transportation (-0.0)


KODK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KODK  Eastman Kodak (-0.01)


FITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FITB  Fifth Third Bancorp (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AAP


PPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPL  PPL (-0.69)


BEKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEKE  KE (-0.7)


CBOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBOE  Cboe Global Markets (-0.75)


DUK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DUK  Duke Energy (-0.76)


BABA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BABA  Alibaba (-0.78)







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