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NEON Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: NEON's implied volatility edge and Databricks acquisition talks could boost investor optimism, driving short-term gains.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and historical mean-reversion suggest corrective risks. Market skepticism on revenue growth lingers.

Potential Outcomes: Price rebounds to $13.5 (35%), stabilizes around $12 (40%), or declines to $10.5 (25%). Potential acquisition impacts volatility.

Trading Oracle: Bearish Long Volatility strategy is optimal due to high implied volatility and uncertainty around future price movements. This strategy leverages the market's expectation of volatility by profiting from variance in actual outcomes.

May 07, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NEON

EOSE Eos Energy Enterprises (0.82)

AGI Alamos Gold (0.8)

TVTX Travere Therapeutics (0.77)

EWC BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Canada (0.77)

PPL PPL (0.77)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NEON

DDOG Datadog (0.01)

HCA HCA Healthcare (0.01)

PCRX Pacira BioSciences (0.01)

TTI Tetra Technologies (-0.02)

ULTA Ulta Beauty (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NEON

OXY Occidental Petroleum (-0.71)

STM New York Shares (-0.72)

AMC AMC Entertainment (-0.72)

NVO Novo Nordisk (-0.72)

MUR Murphy Oil (-0.74)

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