ULTA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Ulta's historical mean-reverting price action and robust partnerships can drive growth, supported by favorable term structure volatility indicating a potential upside recovery.


Bearish Case: Market saturation, tightening margins, and negative insider activity raise concerns. The Helium implied volatility surface shows increased uncertainty, potentially leading to further price decline.


Potential Outcomes: 35% growth from strategic initiatives; 30% decline due to market pressures; 25% stabilizing amid mixed market signals; 10% minor movements reflecting current low volatility.


Trading Oracle: Employ bullish debit spreads. Buy Aug 16, 2024 $410/$420 call spreads. Favorable term structure and historical mean reversion support potential upside. This strategy offers high reward-risk setups with positive edge targeting against short-term market stabilization.


July 17, 2024


Ulta Beauty Forecast

ULTA      Ulta Beauty











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ULTA



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.33)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.31)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.01)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.32)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ULTA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.31)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.32)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.33)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ULTA



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.33)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.31)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.01)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.32)





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