AAP Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Potential upside driven by institutional investments and cost-cutting measures, with a reduced store footprint improving profitability in 2025.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility suggests market uncertainty; store closures and declining sales signal persistent financial struggles with widening losses.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Cost reductions lead to profitability: 40%.
  • Continued financial strain depresses stock: 50%.
  • Successful restructuring improves margins: 10%.




Trading Oracle: Initiate a bearish credit spread targeting out-of-the-money calls expiring March 2025. High implied volatility suggests a profitable opportunity as volatility wanes. Focus on strikes near $50 to capture downside movement while limiting risk.



January 04, 2025


Advance Auto Parts Forecast

AAP        Advance Auto Parts











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AAP



PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.91)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.87)


ALV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALV  Autoliv (0.87)


NINE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NINE  Nine Energy Service (0.87)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AAP



CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (0.01)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (-0.01)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (-0.01)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (-0.01)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AAP



ZETA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZETA  Zeta Global Holdings Corp (-0.84)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (-0.86)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.87)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.88)


GWRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GWRE  Guidewire Software (-0.91)









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