AAP Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AAP's investments in digital transformation and acquisitions could drive market share growth, positively impacting revenues.




Bearish Case: Weak sales forecasts and ongoing financial struggles, exacerbated by store closures, pose significant downside risks.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 35% chance of improved financials from strategic initiatives.
  • 45% chance financial strain continues due to cost pressures.
  • 20% chance of successful turnaround and stock recovery.




Trading Oracle: High implied volatility and uncertain economic climate favor Bearish Long Volatility. Buying OOTM put options and selling fewer further OOTM put options hedges against downside risks while capitalizing on volatility.



March 23, 2025


Advance Auto Parts Forecast

AAP        Advance Auto Parts











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AAP



PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.91)


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (0.88)


ETSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETSY  Etsy (0.87)


SYNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYNA  Synaptics (0.84)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AAP



AAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAL  American Airlines (0.0)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (0.0)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (-0.01)


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (0.01)


HUBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUBS  HubSpot (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AAP



HIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIG  Hartford Financial Services (-0.85)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (-0.85)


PTGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTGX  Protagonist Therapeutics (-0.86)


HEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HEI  Heico (-0.87)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.89)









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