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AAP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Improving inventory management and strategic initiatives could boost AAP's market share, leveraging flat volatility expectations to capitalize on growth potential.



Bearish Case: Continued store closures and high implied volatility suggest prolonged economic struggles, limiting recovery prospects and maintaining downward pressure.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued financial pressure from store closures (50%).
  • Strategic initiatives improve margins (30%).
  • Market volatility leads to unexpected downside (20%).



Trading Oracle: Sell short-term bearish credit spreads focusing on March expirations. Exploit high implied volatility and bearish sentiment by targeting slightly out-of-the-money calls near $50. This approach offers a favorable risk-reward ratio while positioning for potential volatility decreases.


February 08, 2025


Advance Auto Parts Forecast

AAP        Advance Auto Parts

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AAP


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.89)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (0.87)


BP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BP  BP (0.86)


ETSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETSY  Etsy (0.86)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AAP


REYN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REYN  Reynolds Consumer Products (-0.0)


ROOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROOT  Root (-0.01)


PLBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLBY  PLBY (0.02)


ODFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODFL  Old Dominion Freight Line (0.02)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AAP


RY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RY  Royal Bank Of Canada (-0.87)


INSG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSG  Inseego (-0.88)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.88)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.89)


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (-0.9)







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