Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: AbbVie's robust pipeline and recent successful clinical trials, particularly in neuroscience and oncology, position it for significant growth. Expect Skyrizi and Rinvoq to further solidify market share, enhancing revenue despite Humira's decline.

Bearish Case: Risks from biosimilar competition diminishing Humira sales and ongoing legal challenges could severely impact AbbVie's stock price. Concerns around the sustainability of growth and insider selling further cloud the outlook.

Potential Outcomes:

• 60% chance: Successful integration of new drugs offsets Humira losses, driving price upward.
• 25% chance: Legal challenges escalate, leading to revenue declines.
• 15% chance: Market remains stagnant due to negative sentiment and competition.

Trading Oracle: Consider trading a bullish debit spread by buying the $180 call and selling the $185 call for early 2025. This strategy leverages expected price recovery while hedging against downside risks due to implied volatility nearing consistent lows. High probability of profit aligns with current bullish sentiment.

December 19, 2024