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ABBV Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: AbbVie is projected to benefit from strong sales growth of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, driven by pipeline strength and acquisitions, especially in neuroscience, offsetting losses from Humira's biosimilars.



Bearish Case: Continued legal challenges, biosimilar competition, and disappointing trial results for key drugs, including Emraclidine, threaten AbbVie's financial outlook and investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance: Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales growth continues, significantly boosting revenues.

2. 30% chance: Legal issues adversely impact stock performance.

3. 20% chance: Biosimilar competition accelerates Humira's revenue decline.



Trading Oracle: Given the high implied volatility and market uncertainty, consider a bullish debit spread: buy the $170 call and sell the $175 call. This capitalizes on AbbVie's potential price upturn due to pipeline releases while limiting downside risk.


November 15, 2024


Abbvie Forecast

ABBV        Abbvie

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