ACAD Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: ACAD's recent volatility structure indicates potential for price recovery as implied volatility is set to decrease. If positive trial results materialize or licensing deals are finalized, significant upside could arise.




Bearish Case: Insider selling continues to cast doubt over ACAD's future price, coupled with market sentiment suggesting further declines as implied volatility approaches historical lows, indicating lowered investor confidence.




Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of price recovery due to positive trial results.

2. 30% chance of price decline from ongoing insider selling.

3. 20% increase from new licensing deals.

4. 10% risk of trial failures driving price below $14.




Trading Oracle: Consider bullish diagonal spreads by buying $17 calls and selling $19 calls expiring in about 30 days. This setup captures potential upside while minimizing risk given current low volatility. Anticipate price stabilization around $19 if trials yield positive results.



November 14, 2024


Acadia Pharmaceuticals Forecast

ACAD        Acadia Pharmaceuticals











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