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ACAD Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: ACAD could see significant gains from its $150M priority review voucher sale, bolstering investor confidence, alongside potential upside from new licensing agreements, which may improve revenue streams.



Bearish Case: Persistent insider selling and market skepticism, reflected in low trading volume and volatility, may hinder price recovery, especially as ACAD struggles despite new financings and a flat price trend.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40%: New licensing deals drive revenue growth.
  • 30%: Ongoing CEO share sales lead to further declines.
  • 20%: Positive pipeline developments boost stock price.
  • 10%: Unfavorable clinical trial results trigger price drops.



Trading Oracle: With the current volatility skew favoring long calls, consider a debit spread: buy 1 $17.0 call and sell 1 $20.0 call, expiring in 38 days. Aim for a potential return of 86%, capitalizing on expected upward movement driven by positive trial news or licensing revenue. Leverage the low-volume environment.


December 12, 2024


Acadia Pharmaceuticals Forecast

ACAD        Acadia Pharmaceuticals

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