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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: If FAA certification occurs imminently, ACHR's stock may surge due to heightened investor confidence and projected revenue from eVTOL services.

Bearish Case: Should regulatory delays persist, investor skepticism may deepen, potentially causing a notable decline in ACHR’s market price amidst ongoing cash burn concerns.

Potential Outcomes:

1. FAA Approval (70%): Significant stock boost from green light on eVTOL.

2. Continued Legal Issues (40%): Prolonged uncertainty could hinder price recovery.

3. Market Expansion Success (60%): Growth from international partnerships should positively impact revenue.

Trading Oracle: Ambitiously initiate long bullish debit spreads targeting 6-12 month expirations around $5 strike prices, anticipating FAA outcomes. Leverage high implied volatility peaks in January and April to position effectively, balancing potential volatility spikes against market uncertainties.

October 01, 2024